1. Why the cloud build-up won’t mean another dot-com bust

    Why the cloud build-up won’t mean another dot-com bust

    The addition of cloud architecture to the mobile revolution has spurred yet another round of financial optimism, but that doesn’t mean we’re in another bubble.

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    1. Tech companies may go up and down, but if you look at the whole sector itself, it's going to have to keep exploding.
    2. It feels to me like most of the big companies — health care, financial services — won't even touch cloud in more than a very limited way because they are under the impression that cloud is more dangerous than their existing systems.
    3. The stock price for Amazon is not going to go to zero, like it did for Webvan or Pets.com, because they have real, legitimate revenue.
    4. The likelihood that we're reverting back to normal valuation metrics by the VCs is going to change the landscape.
    5. I don't see amateur investors bringing capital into the market because they're not seeing those crazy returns that we were seeing in 2000.
    6. This boom has caused fewer and fewer players to be willing to sell because they felt there was upside on their own.
    7. If things really got bad for the startup economy, that could be good for the hundreds of millions and billions that are sitting around under-utilized by these really big companies, not to mention for their investors.
    8. As you look at the long-term trend, even though the dot-com bubble was painful, all of those promises that were made back then did actually pan out.
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